Yingbao fell below 2% GDP negative 6.How do 8% ordinary people manage money?
In the first quarter, GDP fell by 6.8%, called “live and see” by netizens.Inflation, including the yield of money funds within Yu’ebao, has continued to fall, and has now fallen below 2%. Some analysts say that the era of low interest rates has come.What can ordinary investors invest?What “basic skills” do novice investors need to master before entering the market?Recently, Sauna.com invited Liang Xing, Director of Quantitative Investment Division of Cathay Pacific Fund, and Wang Jing Borg, a finance and economics major, to do an online live broadcast.Sauna Night: How to see the negative GDP growth in the first quarter released on April 17?What impact will it have on the investment of ordinary people?Liang Xing: Affected by home segregation, inside the troika of the economy, exports and consumption suffered a short-term impact of shock in the first quarter. The decline in GDP caused everyone’s psychological expectations.Therefore, after the GDP was released, it did not have a great impact on the stock market that day.Starting from the second quarter, the economic budget will gradually improve from the second quarter, the third quarter, and the fourth quarter, and gradually increase.The other driving car is investment. We can see that after the Spring Festival, we can actually see that many powerful policies have been introduced to provide support for the economy. Infrastructure is involved, including new and old infrastructure.Wangjing Borg: Actually, I think GDP is better than expected. It can be seen that some listed companies only started construction in March, that is, they only started construction for one month in the first quarter, but they still made money, but their profit fell by 70% in the same period last year-80%.As an investor, the more pessimistic you look at the more pessimistic. Optimism is over, and pessimism is over. Why don’t you choose to be more optimistic?History cannot be changed, and the future cannot be predicted, as ordinary people can only do asset allocation.Sauna Night: The yield of money funds has been declining, and some investors worry whether investing in surplus treasure will lose money in the future?Liang Xing: Basically speaking, money funds are not likely to lose money. In history, some extreme cases may occur. Some people say that the counterparty borrowed by money funds has not yet made money. In history, there are, but in the end, they all get very bad.Good solution.Although the current situation has exceeded 2%, the majority of the cases should still be absent, but with lower returns.Wangjing Borg: Don’t worry too much.Now the entire size of the currency fund is 88 trillion yuan, which has a similar history in the United States. The currency fund in the United States was as high as several hundred thousand dollars in 1990. The size of the current currency fund is small. Why?That is, the income of the currency fund is lower. After the redemption fee is canceled, everyone must become a bank deposit.Sauna Night: We have entered the era of low interest rates, and the income of the remaining treasures has fallen below 2%. What else can ordinary people vote for?Differences between various financial tools?Liang Xing: In the era of low interest rates, several types of assets that are relatively good are clear.One type is bonds. The price of bonds and interest rates are inversely proportional, which means that when interest rates fall, bond assets are a long-term trend.The second type is gold. From a relatively long period of time, gold has an inverse relationship with interest rates, and the trend of gold with the US dollar also has an inverse relationship. This decline in interest rates is accompanied by the Fed ‘s unlimited quantitative easing policy.All are good choices to resist inflation and asset shortages.The quantitative easing policy of the United States will cause the actual value of the US dollar to decline. The US dollar depreciates for a long time, so I do not recommend the allocation of US dollars.Third, stock assets must be divided, and the volatility will be larger than bonds and gold.Maybe after buying, sometimes you will encounter lows, because the volatility of the stock is still relatively large, which does not mean that it will rise after low interest rates.But investors should judge the long-term value of stock assets at the current point, and choose a direction to do some layout at a relatively low position.If you dare not invest in a large position at the current point, you can take a fixed investment.Fourth, I am not optimistic about crude oil, because the epidemic caused the demand side of crude oil to be unable to rise for a while.Fifth, it is recommended to wait and see to shorten US stocks to determine whether the market will repeat.Although the recent adjustment of US stocks seems to be due to the impact of the epidemic, it is not a concentrated release of many years of internal problems in the US stocks. This US stock has been growing in recent years, and there are also some internal levers that need an opportunity to adjust.Sixth, the current estimate of Hong Kong stocks is relatively low, but relatively speaking, it is still a relatively niche market. It is recommended to do a little less allocation.Hong Kong stocks have not risen in the past 10 years. Some people think that the real liquid assets are mainly US stocks, and A shares are two very large and liquid markets.Seventh, if you want to invest in equity assets, you can focus more on the scope of A shares.It should be noted that the long-term goal should be taken first, and at the same time, a better direction should be selected.Wangjing Borg: Basically, all my spare money is to buy Yingbao. The declining interest rate of surplus treasure is an inevitable trend. The future investment return rate will continue to fall. The Chinese economy cannot grow at a rate of 7% -8% every year.I think everything that makes you rich is unreliable. It is impossible to get rich through investment funds.Many people encounter a problem. The small income before tax is 20,000 yuan, but the pension is only 4,000 yuan. Many people ‘s goals, including myself, are based on pensions to make long-term investments, so they will insist on fixed investment.Why most of the fixed investment is not profitable?Because it does not reduce holdings when it is cheap, but insists when it is expensive.Most people’s fixed investment is maintained above 3,000 points, but falling below 3,000 points will lead to doubts about the future of the market, that is, falling and escaping.But investing, especially investing in index funds, is a counter-human thing.Regarding fixed investment, many people have 100,000 yuan, and 10,000 yuan per month. This is not called fixed investment, but it is called building warehouses in batches. Fixed investment is to invest a part of your cash flow every month, that is, to save a part of each month to buy your favorite index.Sauna Nightnet: US stocks fuse 4 times in a short period of time, and the transition from bear market to technical bull market is only one month.Has the big outlook for US stocks changed?Liang Xing: I am not completely optimistic about the future of US stocks, or the US economy. First of all, this round of adjustments will use the S & P 500 to represent the decline of the US stock market, but then look at the Nasdaq index and the NASDAQThe performance of the 100 index shows that they have fallen much less than the S & P 500.The Nasdaq index is a bit similar to our GEM, but the scale is still much better than the companies on the GEM.The Nasdaq 100 index is a collection and representative of high-tech companies in the US stock market.It can be seen that these high-tech enterprises are still very good and have the ability to withstand the impact of global new coronary pneumonia.Mainly because the level of cloud in these companies is very high. For example, the use of Facebook will not be affected during the outbreak.The epidemic has a greater impact on Amazon-type companies because it involves physical logistics.The epidemic has indeed impacted US stocks in the short term, but whether the US economy hurts the fundamentals of the US economy still needs time to observe.Sauna Night: Last year, the fund ‘s returns were generally high. For beginners, should you make some preparations and learn some knowledge before investing for the first time?Wangjing Borg: The fund may be the most important way for everyone to manage money in the future, with the lowest rate and the most transparent.Let me share a little bit. Everyone must think about it before buying a fund. Is it because this fund has grown and you want to buy it? Or are you optimistic about the industry represented by the fund, such as biomedicine and new energy vehicles?This is a big difference, because many people will chase up, usually buy at the high point, but after buying it, it will not rise, or even fall, then the logic of holding the fund will change, so you can stay at the lowSell, many people always do this, it will always lose money.And you are better off buying a fund because you are optimistic about the industry.For example, I started to be optimistic about the pharmaceutical industry in 2018. Since then, there have been black swan incidents such as vaccine fraud, which has caused a major blow. However, I think that everyone ‘s demand for medical treatment is very strong, so I will go after the fund fell in 2018.Continue to make up positions. Last year, the pharmaceutical industry fund was also my most profitable fund. So everyone must have their own point of view, and then investment is the realization of your point of view.Many people buy funds to chase the stars blindly, and now star fund managers have become FMCG.Some time ago, I made a statistic. If you buy the champion fund of the previous year every year, from 2003 to 2019, the conversion income will be more than double.Only if you have a point of view, you can avoid chasing ups and downs.Liang Xing: For novices or Xiaobai, I think the first point is to figure out your own risk tolerance.I have seen too many investors who say that my risk tolerance is very high, but when the adjustment comes, you will find that investors can afford to increase by 50%, but they do not accept a 10% decline and allow a 50% increase to buyIt is easy to get caught.That is, you can only see people eating meat, but you don’t see others being beaten, and then you want to eat meat instead of being beaten.Everyone must remember the principle that the risk and return in investment must be proportional. If you ca n’t accept even a 10% drop, equity assets should be allocated less.The second point, in addition to buying surplus treasure, you have to do your homework, stocks, bonds, hybrids, commodities, etc. before buying funds. Assuming that there are still active and index selected in the stock category, you have to engage in their operating mechanism principles, activeThe minimum position of the fund is 80%, and the index type requires more than 90% positions, so it runs well when it rises, and it also falls when it falls.The third point, after determining the industry, if you want to become a mature investor, you must examine the sub-industry behind each industry. In certain medical treatments, there are 7 divisions. You need to know what the long-term development depends on.Sauna Night Net: People around often ask a simple and rough question, saying that I have 300,000 cash in my hand and want to invest in the fund field. How do I invest?Wangjing Borg: Compression is that the 300,000 yuan is not used for 3 years or more than 5 years. If I invest in myself, if I do n’t buy bond funds, I can see that the long-term return of the China Bond Fund Index is 6%, and it may even fall.I will keep enough liquid assets to buy the remaining treasure, and the rest of the assets to buy index funds.As long as index funds are held for a long time and bought at a low market level, the probability of positive returns will be high. For example, if I have 300,000, I am optimistic about some kind of index funds such as biomedicine, new energy vehicles, etc. I may buy half of the index funds below 3000 points, and 150,000 to buy three index funds, each index fund is 50,000 yuan.Liang Xing: In fact, I will still determine the investor’s risk appetite.For those with high risk appetite, the proportion of stock assets is higher.If the risk appetite is relatively low, it is possible to buy a little more bonds or gold. Equity funds are allocated a small part. My own risk tolerance is OK. My current configuration is 40% semiconductor, 30% communication, and 30% medicine.I rarely allocate bonds or currency assets.Sauna, Ye Wang Zhang Shuxin editor Chen Li proofreading Wei Zhuo