Zhonggong Education (002607): Q3 performance is expected to increase by 35% -45%.
The event company released the third quarter performance forecast: it is expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters of 20199.
750,000 yuan, an annual increase of 70.
13%; net profit attributable to mothers in the third 深圳桑拿网 quarter.
780,000 yuan, an annual increase of 35.
Brief comment on how to view the third quarter performance growth?
The company’s net profit attributable to its mother in the third quarter of 19 is expected to reach 35.
32% rapid growth.
If the median is 40.
31% calculation, with reference to 2Q19 return to net profit 46.
4% growth rate per second, which makes a little difference.
The reason is that we believe that it is mainly due to the quarterly difference in revenue recognition. From the perspective of the quarterly performance in 2018, Q1-Q4 are approximately -4.
1%, scale effect in the first half of the next half of the year results in the first half of this year’s performance growth accelerated.
What is the quarterly difference in 都市夜网 the company’s revenue recognition?
The company’s 18-year performance is mainly concentrated in Q3 and Q4 (more than half of Q4’s share). It is reasonable to estimate that its revenue growth is also obvious. The second half of the year, especially the fourth quarter, has a higher percentage of confirmed revenue.
From the time point distribution of the recruitment business income: i) The national examination training income is generally recognized in the first half of the year, and the provincial examination training income is generally confirmed in Q2-Q4. Because the scale of the provincial examination is much larger than the national examination, the second half of the year is civil servant recruitment income.The main confirmation time; ii) teachers’ recruitment examinations are mostly in the second half of the year, and income is mostly confirmed in the second half of the year; iii) joint examinations in some provinces of public institutions are generally held in May and October each year, and in the first half of this year, there are places for public institution recruitmentCompetition has declined, and in some provinces and institutions in the second half of the year, recruitment has improved over the past few years.
How to look at the recruitment training market within the system in 2020?
Recently, the 2020 National Examination Recruitment Post was released, and it is planned to recruit 24,128 people, an increase of 65 in ten years.
9%, exceeding market expectations.
However, because candidates must complete the registration in October 2019 and take the exam at the end of November, the relatively tight registration time has restricted potential candidates from responding to the expansion of the national examination enrollment scale.
However, with the expected improvement of candidates, more people may join the provincial examinations next year, and institutions apply for the examination team. We are optimistic about the 2020 provincial examinations, public institution registration and training market.
Points of concern for positive change.
1) Channel sinking is still accelerating.
As of June 2019, the number of directly operated branches of the company reached 880, covering 319 prefecture-level cities, and the number of outlets increased by 25 at the end of 2018.
The sinking of channels promoted the contribution of sinking and decentralized examination performances such as teachers and grassroots public services; 2) The new track expanded well.
In 2019, the company strengthened the business development of postgraduate entrance examination, selection and transfer, IT training, certificate examination, etc., and the 1H19 company’s comprehensive face-to-face training (postgraduate entrance examination, IT training, certification, etc.) training income reached 7.
20,000 yuan, an increase of 89 in ten years.
The new track excavation has helped the company expand from the field of recruitment examination training to the field of career improvement examination counseling and vocational ability training. Profit forecast: It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the mother in 2019 and 2020 will be 17 respectively.
28ppm, corresponding to 62 and 45 times PE in 2019 and 20 years, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder: the refund rate of the agreed class is obviously increased, and the de-organization of the public institution